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Morgan Stanley: ‘Monster Wells’ Not A Fluke In Eagle Ford

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March 8, 2013

A colorful term coined by EOG Resources Inc. (NYSE:EOG) last year to describe 16 breakthrough Eagle Ford horizontal oil wells producing in excess of 2,500 barrels of oil per day ? plus additional liquids and natural gas ? appears to have stuck: “monster wells.”

According to a recent report by Morgan Stanley Research, Eagle Ford IP rates shot up in year-end 2012 and “are more repeatable and not a fluke.” The report used data from the Texas Railroad Commission.

As it turns out, a lot was up for EOG at year-end:

  • Fourth quarter 2012 IP rates, at 2,015 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day, increased 46% from the first half of the year despite ticking down 5% from the third quarter.
  • Completions year-to-date are up “sharply” from fourth-quarter 2012 alone. The January average is more than 50% higher than in fourth-quarter 2012.
  • EOG has a history of conservative guidance, and so has reported production above the midpoint of guidance for the past eight quarters, averaging 3% above the midpoint.

Morgan Stanley predicts 2013 growth will be the “more critical factor” than fourth-quarter 2012 results, and predicts EOG’s production to grow by 21% (driven by Eagle Ford growth of 61%) year-over-year, “but [we] believe our estimate is conservative.”

The research firm also predicts:

  • EOG will report continued Eagle Ford growth in fourth-quarter 2012, “albeit slightly slower” than in second and third quarters. Morgan Stanley expects the play’s production to increase drastically from 16 MBOE per day in the fourth quarter to 125 MBOE per day.
  • Oil will grow at a faster quarterly rate in 2013. Morgan Stanley predicts EOG will grow oil production by 10,000 barrels per day per quarter. Though Morgan Stanley describes this estimate as “conservative,” EOG’s, at 9,000 barrels per day per quarter, is even more so.
Morgan Stanley Research | Texas Railroad Commission | EOG

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