Wilbur Ross, the investor who’s made billions betting on on-out-favor industries, is bullish on Texas oil after its recent tumble.
“We don’t think oil goes a lot lower than where it is on a sustained basis,” Ross, a turnaround financier and chairman of WL Ross & Co., said Oct. 21 at an event in New York.
Oil prices have declined in recent months with the U.S. benchmark price dropping to $79.78 a barrel on Oct. 16, the lowest since June 2012. The fall reflected worries that global growth was slowing as the U.S. supply surged from hydraulic fracturing of shale. If oil fell below $80 a barrel, low-cost producers would be least hurt, said Ross, whose firm is invested in Diamond S Shipping Group Inc. and exploration company Exco Resources Inc. (NYSE: XCO).
“The Permian Basin in Texas is not only the largest of the shale fields but also probably the lowest cost,” said Ross, referring to the source of more crude output than California and North Dakota combined. “We think they can make a 10% return on their investment even at prices below $60,” he said.
Producers in North Dakota’s Bakken formation have a break-even price closer to $80, he said. A steep fall would cause drillers there to shut production quickly, he said. Oil prices rose 0.3% on Oct. 22 to $82.75
Russia, certain Arab countries and Venezuela would also suffer, he said.
“Venezuela can’t afford to have much lower prices than now,” Ross said, adding that a further drop may cause Venezuelan bonds to default, a view echoed by Harvard University economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff who warned last week that the country is almost certain to default on its foreign-currency bonds.
Ross spoke Oct. 21 at the New York Palace Hotel at an event co-sponsored by Canaccord Genuity Inc. and Youth I.N.C., a nonprofit organization that helps charities raise money for disadvantaged youth.
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