With multistage hydraulic fracturing, multipad drilling and other emerging efficiencies such as managed pressure drilling on its side, the U.S. is expected to continue leading the global tight oil production boom.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the world’s tight oil production could more than double to about 10.36 million barrels per day (MMbbl/d) in 2040, up from 4.98 MMbbl/d in 2015.

While output from Russia, Canada and Argentina, among the handful of countries with commercial tight oil resource potential, is expected to contribute to the surge, the U.S. will provide the bulk. Here, tight oil production is forecast to surpass the 7 MMbbl/d-mark in 2040, the EIA said in an Aug. 12 report based on its latest International Energy Outlook and the Annual Energy Outlook data.

The report’s release arrives as the oil and gas industry continues to rebound from an oversupply-driven downturn and work its way back up to $45/bbl WTI oil from an early summertime drop from near $50/bbl. Still, that level is far from lows around $27/bbl earlier this year.

“United States tight oil production, which reached 4.6 [MMbbl/d] in March 2015 but fell to 4.1 [MMbbl/d] in June 2016, has proven more resilient to low oil prices than many analysts had anticipated,” the EIA said in its report.

Oil and gas companies coping with the industry’s latest downturn have learned to live with less. They have turned to technology and improved techniques while securing service and supply discounts, stalling projects, reducing operational costs and leaving wells uncompleted until market conditions improve to desired levels.

Some are gearing up to increase activity and spending, despite continued commodity price volatility, anticipating a rise in service costs and hopefully, demand.

But many remain focused on further improving their techniques and technology to add volumes and value, or rather profit, from their assets—tight oil included.

EOG Resources Inc. (NYSE: EOG) is among the major tight oil players that have reduced costs while focusing on the assets that can give it the strongest returns.

The company is targeting “premium inventory”—wells that generate at least 30% rates of return at $40/bbl oil— to further increase resource potential. EOG said current premium inventory has 4,300 net wells with an estimated resource potential of 3.5 Bboe.

Company executives say better rock and better completion techniques have improved the productivity of wells, and longer laterals, particularly in Eagle Ford West, are adding to its premium inventory. “By improving well productivity or lowering the costs, in most cases we expect much of our current non-premium inventory in the top basins to be converted to premium over time,” EOG’s CEO Bill Thomas said on the company’s Aug. 4 earnings call.

Further technological advances could lead to even more tight oil to meet the world’s future energy demand. Increasing commodity prices are also expected to jumpstart activity.

“By 2040, the global benchmark Brent crude oil spot price averages $73/b [bbl] in the Low Oil Price case, $136/b [bbl] in the Reference case, and $230/b [bbl] in the High Oil Price case,” the EIA reported. “In the High Oil Price case, drilling activities increase cumulative production. The opposite is true in the Low Oil Price case, where production decreases in response to low prices.”

The report showed that Colombia, Mexico and Russia together could contribute 18%, or 1.8 MMbbl/d, of the projected 10.36 MMbbl/d by 2040 as oil prices rise after 2020. Argentina’s tight oil production could reach 0.69 MMbbl/d by 2040, while Canada’s could reach 0.76 MMbbl/d, the EIA said.

RELATED LINKS

Unfinished Business: EOG Targets More Well Completions, ‘Premium Inventory’

Report: US Tight Oil Wins On Lower Global Cost Curve

Velda Addison can be reached at vaddison@hartenergy.com.