Caracas, Venezuela-based consultancy Ecoanalítica expects Venezuela’s oil production and economy to grow in 2024—aided primarily by a recent license granted by the U.S. government to the benefit of oil and gas companies.

“In general, we expected 2024 to be better than 2023,” Ecoanalítica’s top economist Asdrúbal Oliveros said during a video this week on Instagram where he laid out certain projections for the new year.

General License No. 44, granted in October 2023 by the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), will result in higher oil production and income for the Venezuelan government, Oliveros said.

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Oliveros expects Venezuelan oil production to rise between 70,000/bbl/d-80,000 bbl/d through April 2024, but reiterated it would continue to be contained within a 200,000 bbl/d ceiling before an additional license extension, more economic certainty and investments were needed to boost production further.

Venezuela’s production averaged 780,000 bbl/d in Nov. 2023, according to OPEC’s December 2023 Monthly Oil Market Report, citing data from secondary sources. Venezuela’s production averaged 680,000 bbl/d in 2022 and 553,000 bbl/d in 2021, according to OPEC.

State-owned Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) expects to boost production to at least 1 MMbbl/d in 2024, according to a series of posts in late December and early January on X, formerly Twitter.

Higher economic impact

In 2024, Oliveros projects Venezuela’s oil revenues to rise by around $4 billion in a conservative scenario and up to $10 billion in an optimistic one, assuming prices for the country’s oil basket are between $60/bbl-$70/bbl.

Higher oil production and government income could lead to salary increases that could translate into increased economic activity in 2024, a presidential election year, Oliveros said.

The Venezuelan economy could grow by around 9.7% in Oliveros’ conservative scenario, but he warned there were still a number of headwinds around recent sanction relief granted by Washington in a move to promote “free and fair” elections.