The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects Russian crude production to be curtailed by some 2 million bbl/d of oil by the end of the first quarter next year, its chief Fatih Birol told Reuters on Nov. 29.
The EU will ban Russian crude imports from Dec. 5 and Russian oil products from Feb. 5, depriving Russia of oil revenues and forcing one of the world's top oil producers and exporters to seek alternative markets. The EU is also debating a price cap on Russian seaborne oil for the provision of shipping and insurance.
Russia has lost Europe as its largest energy client “forever,” Birol told an energy conference on Nov. 29.
When asked about the impact of the EU measures, Birol said: “We expect towards the end of the first quarter 2023 that there may be a loss of 2 million barrels per day of Russian oil and there is a need to replace that oil.”
“But there are other factors in place, such as demand, which is very much of a function of a global economy, especially [the] Chinese economy, as well as the decisions that OPEC+ countries are going to have in a few days,” Birol said in an interview on the sidelines of an energy conference.
OPEC+, which includes members of OPEC and its allies led by Russia, will hold its next meeting in Vienna on Dec. 4.
Birol said he expected the members of the group to consider “the rather fragile situation of the global economy” in making decisions.
That is “including most of the clients whose economies may well slide into recession, but also those in the developing countries who suffer the most, but their voices are not heard very much,” he said.
Recommended Reading
Halliburton’s Low-key M&A Strategy Remains Unchanged
2024-04-23 - Halliburton CEO Jeff Miller says expected organic growth generates more shareholder value than following consolidation trends, such as chief rival SLB’s plans to buy ChampionX.
Iraq to Seek Bids for Oil, Gas Contracts April 27
2024-04-18 - Iraq will auction 30 new oil and gas projects in two licensing rounds distributed across the country.
E&P Highlights: April 22, 2024
2024-04-22 - Here’s a roundup of the latest E&P headlines, including a standardization MoU and new contract awards.
Deepwater Roundup 2024: Americas
2024-04-23 - The final part of Hart Energy E&P’s Deepwater Roundup focuses on projects coming online in the Americas from 2023 until the end of the decade.
Technip Energies Wins Marsa LNG Contract
2024-04-22 - Technip Energies contract, which will will cover the EPC of a natural gas liquefaction train for TotalEnergies, is valued between $532 million and $1.1 billion.