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Led by a 10.7% year-over-year increase from the Utica Shale in Ohio, U.S. dry natural gas production set another February record, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported.
However, the agency’s recent estimates for May indicate that the glowing statistics will not continue.
Production for February, up 2.3% from the previous February and 1.0% from January 2016, advanced for the third straight year and was the highest for the month since the EIA began tracking natural gas output in 1973. The figures reflected continued momentum from 2015, which set a record with an average of 79 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d).
In addition to Ohio, other states reporting increases included New Mexico, Pennsylvania, North Dakota, Louisiana, Texas, Montana and West Virginia.
With the exception of the Utica Shale, which is projected by the EIA to increase production by 1 MMcf/d, major shale plays are expected to experience a total drop-off of 491 MMcf/d in May, with the sharpest decline at the Eagle Ford at 213 MMcf/d. Even the Marcellus Shale, the leading gas producer, will see a 60 MMcf/d dip to 17.277 Bcf/d, the EIA forecasts.
The EIA’s preliminary data for dry natural gas production for February 2016 were 2.183 Tcf, or 75.3 Bcf/d. However, dry natural gas consumption for February 2016 was 2.703 Tcf, or 93.2 Bcf/d, an 11.6% decrease from 2.952 Tcf in February 2015, or 12.2 Bcf/d.
Only electric power deliveries showed an increase in consumption, the EIA reported. They rose 6.4% from 651 Bcf to 692 Bcf, with residential deliveries down a startling 24.5% from 32.3 Bcf/d to 24.4 Bcf/d. Commercial deliveries also slumped from 18.6 Bcf/d to 14.5 Bcf/d.
Industrial deliveries fared somewhat better, slipping only 2.6% from 23.6 Bcf/d to 23.0 Bcf/d.
Joseph Markman can be reached at jmarkman@hartenergy.com and @JHMarkman.
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