With better than half of U.S. rigs out of commission, oilfield service companies have plenty of equipment ripe for selling.
The problem is finding a buyer.
Service companies─large, small and major─are being squeezed by E&Ps to lower costs. Some companies are bleeding money to stay in operations. Mom and pop operators in the Bakken, for instance, are simply folding up.
Service industry leaders at a May 19 panel on oilfield services investment and M&A at the Mergermarket Energy Forum said more companies will fall into distress in the coming months. That will create opportunities for the strong, but in a down market few are moving aggressively.
Dan Eberhart, CEO, Canary LLC, is a potential buyer. But his company has gone through layoffs, severe reductions in overtime and pushed vendors for better and better pricing to keep the company above the cash breakeven point.
Canary will look for opportunistic deals in the second half of 2015.
“Smaller companies, in one basin or with one customer, I get the sense they’re burning through working capital,” he said. “They still have a little bit more to go before there’s a lot more blood in the water.”
Edward E. Will, vice president, Cameron International Corp. (CAM), said culling the field is not necessarily a bad thing. Some segments of the service industry have become overcrowded, such as the growth of pressure pumping companies.
“Consolidation is clearly the order of the day,” he said. “It’s just not here yet.”
A sudden splurge from buyers is indeed unlikely, said Adam Peakes, managing director of investment banking, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.
While willing sellers “would love to raise cash from idle equipment,” few are interested.
“The real question is who is going to buy it? Capital is precious. No one is going out of their way at this point in the market to say this is my opportunity to aggressively roll up frack fleets,” he said.
The service sector is already dealing with an excessive amount of underutilized equipment.
“Those already in the business, generally speaking, are rationalizing their own fleet, figuring out how to get their ship in order, not add equipment,” he said.
The market is clearly taking its toll on a sector of the industry that only produced EBITDA margins in the high teens during the upcycle. As current market forces demand more discounts, companies are operating at cash breakeven points or even losing money.
“That’s not sustainable,” he said.
Peakes said other service and supply business, such as chemicals, sand and other proppants, will need to cut costs, too.
Panelists said that by years end, severely distressed assets will lure out buyers.
Cameron plays in three sectors: deepwater, global conventional drilling and unconventional in the U.S. A year ago, Cameron was a seller, not a buyer, and has significant cash to make a deal.
“We’re trying to figure out right now between those three (areas) where to place bets going forward,” he said, adding that the best prospect for growth rates will likely win.
Eberhart said Canary will be more cautious and conservative than in the past.
“We will be price sensitive, but we’re willing to look at stuff,” he said.
As for the biggest deal in the services industry, the ongoing merger of Halliburton (HAL) and Baker Hughes Inc. (BHI), panelists speculated that the companies will shed between $5 billion and $7 billion in businesses such as wireline services.
Eberhart said he looks at the continuation of the deal as a positive indicator for industry in the medium term.
“Despite the price fluctuations, the fact that they still want to go with the deal shows they’re bullish,” he said.
As for the assets the companies need to sell in order for the merger to be approved by Department of Justice (DOJ), many companies and private equity players will likely line up for a crack at them.
“The quality of these assets is a rarity, a game changer,” said Steven McDowell, global director of acquisitions and divestitures for Weatherford International (WFT).
However, McDowell said the timing of the divestitures will be longer than what people may think.
“I suspect if I’m Halliburton or Baker, I don’t execute until I’ve got clearance from DOJ,” he said.
While Weatherford has restructured and sold a number of non-essential assets, the company will still look at assets that are part of what the company does best.
“Halliburton, Baker Hughes, everybody is going to take a look at that,” he said.
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