A 5% permitting slowdown in major U.S. unconventional plays in fourth-quarter 2014 foreshadows a steeper and more sustained drop to come, according to a report from Morgan Stanley Research. The pullback in permitting wasn’t equal to the percentage drop in oil prices during the period.

“We believe slower permitting deceleration supports the resiliency of U.S. production growth and highlights the time and feedback process necessary to slow U.S. E&P [exploration and production] activity,” the authors said. “While permitting activity in leading unconventional oily basins (Eagle Ford and Permian Midland) was down sequentially, the magnitude of the decline (less than 15%) was lower than the decline in WTI (41% in fourth-quarter 2014 and 25% average quarter-over-quarter decline).”

U.S. unconventional is the primary and new global “swing production,” according to the report. Still, it takes nine to 12 months to “significantly decelerate vs. an acting oil cartel.”

Energy analysts’ attention remains focused on that speed of U.S spending and production deceleration. The U.S. shale sector’s new role as the swing producer has made it the “near-term balancing factor for the oil markets… This new market structure—of a market price-balancing mechanism—increases the focus [on] and import [of] any leading indicator of U.S. production.”

For first-quarter 2015, the Morgan Stanley analysts think E&Ps will work through the factors standing in the way of production cutbacks. They require time to adjust and obtain board approval for lower capex spending this year and to adjust to the “new realities of non-OPEC action and lower price.” Further, they face the “prisoner’s dilemma” of cutting activity to help balance price. Hopes for a late-2015 and 2016 price recovery depend on E&Ps’ success in developing capex budgets that reflect the sub-$50 pricing environment.

Leading the decline in permitting in the fourth quarter were the Eagle Ford and Midland Permian plays, which declined by 13% to 14% over the prior period. Give the larger number of private and less well-capitalized E&Ps in the Permian Basin, the analysts expect a much steeper decline in permitting to come.

Bakken and Permian Delaware Basin permitting held flat for the most part quarter to quarter. The “big surprise” was the Niobrara, according to the report. “Despite falling crude prices, the Niobrara witnessed an unprecedented level of permitting activity. Activity was up 43% and 46% above the quarterly average of 679 between first-quarter 2013 and third-quarter 2014, when oil prices averaged $99/bbl.” Operators filed for 994 permits in the fourth quarter, with Noble, Anadarko, and EOG in the lead.

In the primary natural gas plays, the Haynesville, Barnett and Northeast Marcellus registered drops, while permitting in the wet-gas southwest Marcellus rose by 12%.