Around this time of year in the remote, oil rich Williston Basin, operators in North Dakota usually brace for the likelihood of a winter blast that will knock back production.

Regardless of how the weather turns, production is predicted to continue fading.

In December, the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that Bakken regional production will fall by 27 thousand barrels per day (Mbbl/d) to 1,110 Mbbl/d.

The Bakken/Three Forks formations are in retreat and literally dug in—drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells have crossed the 1,000 mark and then some in North Dakota. Some of the largest producers are lowering their production guidance for the remainder of 2015 and into 2016 or cutting capex to focus on more economic plays.

The well-documented slide in rig counts continues, with the Williston Basin’s count at 63 as of Nov. 20—down 125 during the same time period in 2014, according to Baker Hughes Inc. (NYSE: BHI).

And roughly 160 companies—mostly small outfits with median production of 6,730 barrels per year—are no longer reporting production to the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources. Instead, the top 25 oil producers have picked up the slack of companies erased from the state’s E&P roster.

Yet through it all, the Bakken has managed to stay flat despite abandoned drilling programs, slashed spending and company exits from the Williston Basin.

Making A Million

In 2014, the Bakken Shale was a machine. E&Ps churned out production in a monthly escalation. Overall, production has remained relatively flat.

In North Dakota, in a run stretching 36 months, oil production grew by an average 19,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) from January 2012 to December 2014—even with production drops because of severe cold and wind.

So far in 2015, the story has been radically different. While production is still more than 1 MMbbl/d, North Dakota volumes have are showing more consistent declines, according to a Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. note on Nov. 16.

Hart Energy

In September, North Dakota’s production fell 25 Mbbl/d of oil, “representing one of the largest drops outside of a winter month in the state.”

“Declines came on the back of another month of minimal activity levels as rig count continues to slide,” the firm said. “Only 123 wells were completed, leading to another large DUC backlog build.”

At the end of September an estimated 1,091 wells were waiting on completion services, 98 more than at the end of August.

Whiting: Dominant, Cautious

Apart from some small jockeying for position the top producers in North Dakota are relatively unchanged, with the notable exception of Whiting Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: WLL).

In December, Whiting acquired Kodiak Oil & Gas Corp. in an all-stock transaction valued at $6 billion. It has since become the largest producer in North Dakota.

Whiting’s operations update in the third quarter of 2015 highlights the trend of impressive well results stemming from enhanced completions in the Bakken, said Mike Kelly, analyst with Seaport Global Securities LLC.

However, companies are also signaling cutbacks in production and spending.

Whiting is running eight rigs in the Bakken after cutting three in September. Jim Volker, president and CEO, said Whiting would drop another two rigs in the Bakken if prices drop lower, though he said that’s because of economics rather than a commentary on the play.

“It's just that we happen to have two rigs in the Williston that would be droppable with only somewhere around $10 million of early term payments. So we could drop two of them and it would not cost us more than $10 million,” Volker said.

Whiting’s enhanced completions in the Bakken averaged 44% higher 30-day rates than second quarter wells, Kelly said. However, Whiting said that its net production in the Williston Basin declined 4% to 130.9 thousand barrels of oil equivalent (boe/d) compared to the second quarter of 2015.

The company has focused on distributing sand to create more entry points in fracks, said Mark Williams, Whiting’s senior vice president of exploration and development. The company uses 7 million pounds of sand now, double the amount in 2014.

Continental Incomplete

Continental Resources Inc. (NYSE: CLR) is already guiding its production down for 2016, despite a strong showing so far in 2015.

The company is reducing Bakken operations to achieve cash flow neutrality at $50/bbl, said Charles Robertson II, analyst with Cowen and Co.

As of Nov. 4, the company had no completion crews in the shale play. As a result, it continues to build an inventory of DUCs. At the end of the third quarter of 2015, the company had 123 gross DUC wells compared to 95 at the end of second-quarter 2015.

“This reflects the deferral of completion activities starting in third quarter 2015 and completed wells that have not commenced production,” the company said.

Continental plans to decrease its DUCs to about 115 gross operated DUC wells by the end of 2015.

Like Whiting, Continental’s Bakken output declined 4% from the second quarter. The company completed 35 net operated and non-operated Middle Bakken and Three Forks wells.

However, Continental continues to push its drilling teams in the Bakken, where it set company performance records, including decreasing average drilling time by 15% compared to 2014.

EOG: Well King

Similarly, EOG Resources Inc. (NYSE: EOG) continues to improve its drilling and completion techniques including the expanded use of high density completions.

The company blew the doors off the Bakken with its Riverview #102-32H well, which produced 200,000 bbl of oil in its first 91 days. The well produced more in three months than 29 combined Bakken operators’ have produced in the first nine months of 2015.

The company continued to improve its drilling and completion techniques including the expanded use of high density completions. In North Dakota, the company remains focused on the Bakken Core and Antelope Extension areas.

The company is set to complete about 25 net wells in 2015 compared to 59 in 2014.

The company’s D&C costs are down 20% in the Bakken to $7 million and drilling days have fallen to 7.6 days compared to 12.4 in 2014.

EOG is now using a high-intensity design that creates 4,030 events per 1,000-foot stage. Using the method, EOG drilled and completed the Riverview #102-32H in its Antelope field area, which produced 200,000 barrels of oil in its first 91 days.

Pearce Hammond, analyst, Simmons & Co. International, said he is modeling EOG’s drillbit capex to be down 22% overall in 2016 to $2.9 billion.

Hess Corp.

Hess Corp. (NYSE: HES) will be pulling back in the Bakken in 2016.

The company plans to run four rigs in the Bakken compared to an average of 8.5 in 2015 and reduced production guidance to 95-105 Mboe/d in 2016, the company said.

In the third quarter of 2015, oil and gas production in the Bakken was up 31% to 113,000 boe/d from a year ago. Hess brought 48 gross operated wells on production in the third quarter and operated seven rigs.

The company also sold a 50% interest in its Bakken Midstream for after-tax cash proceeds of $3 billion.

New Pace

Marathon Oil Corp. (NYSE: MRO) is also seeing an impact from reduced completion activity.

“In response to the collapse in commodity prices, we executed a plan to significantly reduce our company-wide capex which included much lower drilling and completion activities in the U.S. resource plays,” the company said. “With more stabilized D&C activity levels, fourth quarter 2015 production guidance includes flat sequential volumes in the Eagle Ford and continued reduced completion activity in the Bakken.”

Oxy Gone

Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY) is departing the Williston after a sell off its assets for $600 million in the third quarter of 2015.

In the third quarter, Occidental’s Williston Basin average production fell by 4 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mboe/d) to 17 Mboe/d compared to the third quarter of 2014.

Stephen I. Chazen, president and CEO, said the company had made a strategic decision to exit the Williston Basin, along with cutting back in the Middle East and North Africa.

Chazen said that the Bakken always generated negative cash flow or, at best, neutral cash flow for Oxy.

“It's declining about 1,000 barrels a day a quarter, so a year from now it would be 13,000 or so a day,” he said on Oct. 28.

New player Lime Rock Resources, which bought Occidental’s holdings, has produced 1.2 MMbbl of oil through September of 2015. Even with diminishing production, Oxy produced has produced 5.3 MMbbl through the same time period. Lime Rock closed two Williston acquisitions in Mountrail County, N.D., in October 2014.

Contact the author, Darren Barbee, at dbarbee@hartenergy.com.