This year like all years has seen ups, downs, advances and gains. Yet from an energy perspective, there is much to be thankful for during this uniquely American holiday. Here is our 2018 year-to-date countdown of energy developments in which to be thankful:
12. No Peak Oil: In 2018, peak oil output did not arrive in the U.S. at the 6.3 million barrels of oil per day (MMbbl/d) level predicted by the EIA 2008 Long Term Energy Outlook. Our most recent Oil Comparables Weekly report shows the nation hit a new record of 11.7 MMbbl/d of crude and condensate production in the field last week, according to the latest EIA data.
11. Lower Emissions: Available 2018 year-to-date data for CO2 equivalent emissions from energy use are down 11.4% from data for the same period of 2008, according to EIA monthly data through July.
10. Strong Growth and Tame Inflation: In 2018, EIA's reference annual outlook for inflation is still 2.3% while the EIA's short-term GDP growth forecast is 2.9% for the next four quarters.
9. Energy Security: A more self-reliant U.S. will likely exit 2018 with just 10% to 15% of liquid petroleum demand being met by net imports rather than the 60% import reliance of a decade earlier Our most recent Oil Comparables Weekly report shows the U.S. already is a net offshore exporter, sending out more overseas than we take in. Canadian crude and product trade with the U.S. that utilize pipelines and rail tanker logistics enables this strategic energy security advantage.
8. Top Exporter: The U.S. is recognized as the world's leading liquid petroleum energy producer, topping both Saudi Arabia and Russia.
7. Taxes: In 2018, the top U.S. corporate tax rate is now 21% versus the 35% of recent years past.
6. Downstream Expansion not Contraction: In 2018, the U.S. downstream crude processing and petrochemical manufacturing industry is running, investing and growing. It’s not idling, shrinking and offshoring. Congratulations on the announcement of the USVI's announced restart at Limetree Bay with BP PLC, and we look forward to FID decisions on Gulf Coast refinery expansions by Exxon Mobil and Chevron soon.
5. Crude Prices: Key benchmark oil prices in 2018, although volatile, have found a floor well above $50/bbl (with OPEC's role now setting a floor as the U.S. industry effectively sets the short-term ceiling.)
4. Gas Prices: U.S. natural gas prices in most trading hubs have recovered enough to enable continued investment in supply side infrastructure (gas production, logistics and processing and fractionation facilities) while also enabling advantageous purchases and investment by export markets and domestic consumers seeking fuels for heat, power and industrial processes.
3. Low Gasoline Prices: In 2018 unleaded regular gasoline prices are nowhere near the $4.59/gal California paid in 2008 (the highest cost Lower 48 states.)
2. Energy Transformation: U.S. energy companies are improving and transforming more lives across the world via access to low cost abundant U.S.-supplied energy reaching more global markets thanks to pipelined or tanked light shale crude oil exports, to pipelined, tanked and railed refined fuel product exports, to abundant and clean natural gas exported via pipelines or LNG carriers, to NGL exports via pipelines, rail tankers and marine tankers, and more. The weekly EIA data and more within the our latest Oil Comparables Weekly and our Gas Comparables Weekly reports show that the U.S. exported 7.25 MMbbl/d of oil-equivalent energy across the globe last week.
1. Our Clients: That Stratas Advisors serves a great roster of financial, operating, governmental and manufacturing clients across and around the globe's fullstream energy industry. We are grateful and look forward to supporting your efforts into the future.
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