Global crude oil and condensate production in fourth-quarter 2017 was about 76.6 million barrels per day (MMbbl/d), a 370,000-bbl/d drop compared with third-quarter 2017. Four of the seven regions experienced certain levels of production drops, led by the Middle East with a decline of about 140,000 bbl/d. North America produced nearly 360,000 bbl/d of more oil in fourth-quarter 2017 than in the third quarter, mainly due to the U.S.’ shale production recovery. Europe increased about 240,000 bbl/d in fourth-quarter 2017, driven by the U.K. and Norway.
Several oil projects came onstream in fourth-quarter 2017, including one oil-sands project─CNRL’s Horizon Phase 3 (80,000 bbl/d). Other oil projects that started up in the fourth quarter included ExxonMobil Corp.’s heavy crude Hebron (150,000 bbl/d) offshore the east coast of Canada, Dana Petroleum Plc’s Western Isles project (50,000 bbl/d) and Premier’s Catcher project (50,000 bbl/d) offshore U.K.
In North America, production in fourth-quarter 2017 reached 14 MMbbl/d, a 357,000-bbl/d increase compared with the third quarter. The U.S. contributed the majority of the increase (333,000 bbl/d) as the shale industry started to recover. Canada only saw a slight increase of 24,000 bbl/d. In Latin America, production was about 8.6 MMbbl/d, a slight decrease of 39,000 bbl/d compared with the third quarter due to the decreases from Brazil, Ecuador and Venezuela.
In Europe, production increased by 240,000 bbl/d to 3.3 MMbbl/d. Both the U.K. and Norway contributed to the increase. Africa slightly increased production by about 36,000bbl/d, to 8.2 MMbbl/d compared with the third quarter. In Asia Pacific, production dropped by 63,000 bbl/d in the fourth quarter compared with the third quarter, mostly due to a production decline in China (43,000-bbl/d drop).
The Middle East’s production fell by about 145,000 bbl/d in the fourth quarter to 28 MMbbl/d, driven by Iraq and Iran as those two countries dropped about 115,000 bbl/d. In Russia and CIS, production was at 13.7 MMbbl/d in the fourth quarter, about a 10,000-bbl/d decrease compared with the third quarter. Russia, participating in the production cut deal with OPEC, reduced about 50,000 bbl/d of crude output in the fourth quarter.
Global oil and condensate production in first-quarter 2018 will continue to increase by about 310,000 bbl/d contributed from four regions led by North America and driven by U.S. shale as West Texas Intermediate remains above $60/bbl.
Suncor Energy Inc.’s Fort Hills Phase 1 (180,000 bbl/d) came online in January. Looking ahead, a few new oil projects are expected to come online in the first quarter, including the Satah Al-Razboot in UAE with capacity of 100,000 bbl/d, the Clair Ridge in the U.K. with capacity of 120,000 bbl/d, Chevron Corp.’s delayed Big Foot project in deepwater Gulf of Mexico (75,000 bbl/d) and the Buzios 3 project in Brazil with capacity of 150,000 bbl/d.
In North America, production in first-quarter 2018 is expected to increase by 250,000 bbl/d. The U.S. will see a growth of 200,000 bbl/d, mainly from its shale operations. Canada is expecting a production increase of 27,000 bbl/d as new oil-sands project Fort Hills cranks up.
In Latin America, production is expected to further drop by 240,000 bbl/d in the region as crude production continue to decline in Venezuela and Mexico.
In Europe, production is expected to slightly drop, losing about 20,000 bbl/d in first-quarter 2018. U.K. and Norway production will remain stable through the first quarter. Africa’s production is expected to remain flat. In Asia Pacific, production is expected to increase by 106,000 bbl/d, as China and Malaysia are projected to raise production by 54,000 bbl/d and 44,000 bbl/d, respectively. In the Middle East, output will increase about 130,000 bbl/d, driven by a production ramp-up in Iraq, which lost production in fourth-quarter 2017. Oil production in Russia and CIS is expected to increase by about 130,000 bbl/d in first-quarter 2018 as Russia and Kazakhstan are projected to ramp up crude output.
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