In the week since our last edition of What’s Affecting Oil Prices, Brent prices pushed higher to average above $70/bbl on a weekly basis.
For the upcoming week, Stratas Advisors expect Brent prices to pull back and average $69/bbl. This week the analysts expect the West Texas Intermdiate-Brent differential to average $4/bbl, after a substantial fall last week.
Geopolitical: Negative
Geopolitics will be a negative factor in the week ahead. Outside of the perennial issues around Venezuela the geopolitical landscape remains quiet, which Stratas Advisors believe will put some pressure on prices.
Dollar: Positive
The dollar continues to fall, with the relationship between crude and the dollar beginning to strengthen. Thus, Stratas analysts see this as a positive factor for crude prices.
Trader Sentiment: Positive
Record long positions are reflecting positive trader sentiment, despite the risk of a correction in such overbought territory.
Supply: Negative
A bump of 12 rigs last week pushed the U.S. to record production levels, making this a negative factor this week.
Demand: Neutral
Demand in the U.S. remains volatile due to weather concerns. This is not likely to move the market substantially and remains a neutral factor.
Refining: Positive
Refining margins around the world strengthened last week, making this variable a positive factor.
Recommended Reading
Halliburton’s Low-key M&A Strategy Remains Unchanged
2024-04-23 - Halliburton CEO Jeff Miller says expected organic growth generates more shareholder value than following consolidation trends, such as chief rival SLB’s plans to buy ChampionX.
Vår Selling Norne Assets to DNO
2024-05-08 - In exchange for Vår’s producing assets in the Norwegian Sea, DNO is paying $51 million and transferring to Vår its 22.6% interest in the Ringhorne East unit in the North Sea.
SLB OneSubsea JV to Kickstart North Sea Development
2024-05-07 - SLB OneSubsea, a joint venture including SLB and Subsea7, have been awarded a contract by OKEA that will develop the Bestla Project offshore Norway.
For Sale, Again: Oily Northern Midland’s HighPeak Energy
2024-03-08 - The E&P is looking to hitch a ride on heated, renewed Permian Basin M&A.
E&P Highlights: Feb. 26, 2024
2024-02-26 - Here’s a roundup of the latest E&P headlines, including interest in some projects changing hands and new contract awards.