In the week since our last edition of What’s Affecting Oil Prices, Brent prices were nearly flat, up only 37 cents to average $77.56/bbl. WTI prices saw more support, rising nearly $2 to average $73.71/bbl.

The week ahead will see both prices continue to climb on higher demand and myriad supply outages. We expect that Brent prices will likely average at least $78/bbl in the week ahead, while WTI could potentially reach $75. We reiterate that the strength in WTI is likely temporary, driven primarily by a production outage in Canada.

Geopolitical: Positive

Geopolitics will be a positive factor in the week ahead as fighting in Libya and sanctions against Iran are supporting prices.

Dollar: Neutral

The dollar will be a neutral factor in the week ahead as fundamental and sentiment-related drivers continue to have more impact on crude oil prices.

Trader Sentiment: Neutral

Trader sentiment will be a neutral factor in the week ahead, with fundamentals providing more direction to crude prices.

Supply: Positive

Supply will likely be a marginally positive factor in the week ahead with Venezuelan, Iranian, Libyan and Syncrude volumes all constrained.

Demand: Neutral

Demand will be a neutral factor in the week ahead as rising prices fail to stymie demand but also do not create opportunities for strong growth.

Refining: Neutral

Refining will be a neutral factor in the week ahead with margins, especially in Asia, continuing to fall on higher crude prices and more regional product supply.

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