What's Affecting Oil Prices This Week (July 9, 2018)?

Monday, July 9, 2018 - 10:18am

In the week since our last edition of What’s Affecting Oil Prices, Brent prices were nearly flat, up only 37 cents to average $77.56/bbl. WTI prices saw more support, rising nearly $2 to average $73.71/bbl.

The week ahead will see both prices continue to climb on higher demand and myriad supply outages. We expect that Brent prices will likely average at least $78/bbl in the week ahead, while WTI could potentially reach $75. We reiterate that the strength in WTI is likely temporary, driven primarily by a production outage in Canada.

Geopolitical: Positive

Geopolitics will be a positive factor in the week ahead as fighting in Libya and sanctions against Iran are supporting prices.

Dollar: Neutral

The dollar will be a neutral factor in the week ahead as fundamental and sentiment-related drivers continue to have more impact on crude oil prices.

Trader Sentiment: Neutral

Trader sentiment will be a neutral factor in the week ahead, with fundamentals providing more direction to crude prices.

Supply: Positive

Supply will likely be a marginally positive factor in the week ahead with Venezuelan, Iranian, Libyan and Syncrude volumes all constrained.

Demand: Neutral

Demand will be a neutral factor in the week ahead as rising prices fail to stymie demand but also do not create opportunities for strong growth.

Refining: Neutral

Refining will be a neutral factor in the week ahead with margins, especially in Asia, continuing to fall on higher crude prices and more regional product supply.

How We Did

Ashley Petersen

Ashley Petersen is the Lead Oil Market Analyst at Stratas Advisors, a global consulting and analytics provider for all facets of the oil and gas markets and related industries. Ashley has over 5 years’ experience analyzing crude oil markets with an emphasis on Atlantic Basin fundamentals.

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